AGP Executive Report

Drone War, Russia: Ukrainian drones hit Wildberries logistics sites in Kotovsk (Tambov) and Elektrostal (Moscow region), killing at least 8–9 people and wounding dozens, while an oil depot in Noginsk caught fire and evacuations were reported. Kyiv Politics, Army Shake-Up: Zelenskyy says “decisions regarding the army” are being worked out after the dismissal of Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov, as protests enter a third day in Kyiv and beyond demanding Fedorov’s return and Syrskyi’s removal. Long-Range Retaliation: Zelenskyy claims strikes near Moscow and in Tambov targeted logistics supplying sanctioned drone components, plus attacks in the Azov/Black Sea and Crimea. International Diplomacy: The US appointed Sandra Oudkirk as chargé d’affaires in Ukraine. Tech & Security: Ukraine’s Stetman pushes ahead with a 360-satellite constellation for service starting in 2027 despite founder Dmytro Stetsenko’s death. Regional Memory Politics: Zelenskyy says Ukraine will open SBU and Foreign Intelligence archives on the Volyn tragedy and speed up exhumation permits. Culture: Berlin will host a memorial evening for late Ukrainian artist Davyd Chychkan.

Drone War on Russia: Ukrainian drones hit Wildberries warehouses in Kotovsk (Tambov region) and Elektrostal (Moscow region), killing at least 7 night-shift workers (8 later reported) and injuring dozens, while a separate strike sparked a fire at an oil depot near Moscow. EU Accession Block: Hungary blocked opening EU accession negotiation clusters 2 and 3 for Ukraine at a Council meeting, with talks stalled pending a July 22 revisit. Kyiv’s Cabinet Shake-Up: Zelenskyy’s reshuffle—ending Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov’s role and naming new interim posts—triggered protests across Ukraine and renewed debate over the war’s direction. Frontline Tactics: Special operators say drone-saturated “kill zones” are forcing new infiltration methods and constant sky-watching during trench assaults. Black Sea Pressure: Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces struck 13 more Russian shadow-fleet vessels, bringing the campaign total to 172 since July 6. Diplomacy with Poland: Zelenskyy moved to repair ties with Warsaw, including plans to open SBU and foreign intelligence archives on Volyn and expand exhumation work; Donald Tusk welcomed the steps. US Personnel: Sandra Oudkirk began her tenure as US Chargé d’Affaires in Kyiv.

War Casualties: Russian and Ukrainian strikes killed at least 13 people across the border, including missile and drone attacks hitting Odesa, Mykolaiv, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv and Kupiansk, while Kherson reported elderly civilian casualties. Security Shake-Up: Zelenskyy’s cabinet reshuffle continues to roil the country: Oleksandr Poklad was named acting SBU chief, Ihor Klymenko tapped for the national security and defence council, and Yevhen Khmara installed as acting defence minister with Andrii Sybiha as acting foreign minister—sparking protests and renewed calls to remove top commanders. Protests in Kyiv: Thousands rallied for a second day after the sacking of tech-minded defence minister Mykhailo Fedorov, with demonstrators chanting for “Fedorov back” and “Syrskyi must go.” Diplomacy on Volhynia: Ukraine pledged to open SBU and foreign intelligence archives on the Volhynia massacres and expand joint search and exhumations with Poland. Defense Tech Push: Zelenskyy appointed “Flash” Beskrestnov as adviser on defence technologies, while Ukraine also looks to share its “blood experience” in drones with allies. Energy and Food Pressure: Ukrainian strikes disrupted Russian fuel production and grain export capacity, worsening shortages and pushing up global energy costs. EU Support for Innovation: The EU agreed a new €115m AGILE program to help Ukrainian defence startups scale faster.

Government Shake-Up & Protests: Ukraine’s parliament confirmed energy executive Serhii Koretskyi as prime minister as rare wartime street protests erupted over President Zelenskyy’s dismissal of defence minister Mykhailo Fedorov, with demonstrators demanding his return and anger spilling into cities nationwide. Defense Leadership Rift: Zelenskyy defended backing top commander Oleksandr Syrskyi, saying unity failed and appointing acting defence minister Yevhenii Khmara while foreign and defence posts briefly fell into legal limbo. Winter Readiness: Koretskyi’s first mandate is preparing for a fifth winter at war after strikes left millions facing heating and water problems. Long-Range Strikes: Zelenskyy said Ukraine’s Security Service destroyed a Russian Tu-95 at Engels, about 800 km from the border, as Kyiv also hit oil and other targets. Black Sea Drone Campaign: Ukraine’s unmanned forces reported striking 159 “shadow fleet” vessels in 12 days, including 12 overnight, aiming to cripple Russia’s sanctioned maritime logistics. EU/Allies Support: The EU approved new sanctions on six Russian military-industrial entities tied to drone production; the UK pledged €300 million with Sweden to deliver 16 Gripen jets. Frontline Toll: Russian attacks killed civilians and wounded dozens across regions including Kyiv, Odesa, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia. Local Life & Environment: Kyiv authorities plan a new open cultural space on Andriivsky Descent, while Moldova and Ukrainian officials discussed risks to Chisinau’s water supply as Dniester levels fall.

Winter Readiness: Prime Minister Sergii Koretskyi says Ukraine is accelerating winter preparations under a “Resilience Plan,” warning the next heating season will be tougher as Russia steps up ballistic missiles, drones, and strikes. Protests & Power Struggle: Thousands rallied in Kyiv and other cities after Zelenskyy dismissed Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov, with demonstrators demanding his return and blaming the move for undermining wartime momentum; Zelenskyy cited a deep rift with commander Oleksandr Syrskyi. New Government: Parliament approved Koretskyi as PM and the Cabinet held its first meeting, setting efficiency and results as priorities; Zelenskyy praised Koretskyi’s energy-sector experience, especially reforms at Ukrnafta and Naftogaz. NATO Reaction: NATO chief Mark Rutte expects continuity in Ukraine’s strategy, saying Ukraine is striking deep into Russia and Russia is losing heavily each month. Security & Human Toll: Russia and Ukraine strikes killed at least 13 across multiple regions, while Ukraine claimed drone attacks hit 20 Russian ships in the Black Sea. Anti-Fraud Push: The Cabinet approved a National Anti-Fraud Strategy to protect Ukraine and EU financial interests through 2028. UK Support: The UK pledged €300 million to help field 16 Gripen E jets by 2029.

Government Shake-Up & Protests: President Zelensky dismissed Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov after six months, triggering mass protests in Kyiv and other cities as lawmakers also moved to approve a new prime minister. New PM: The Rada approved Naftogaz CEO Serhii Koretskyi as prime minister, with a cabinet appointment package submitted to parliament. EU Drone Deal: EU Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen and Zelensky signed a major drone and counter-drone partnership, with €1 billion more released for drone procurement and production scaling. UK Support in Transition: Outgoing UK PM Keir Starmer met Zelensky in Kyiv, pledging “cast-iron” support won’t change with his successor, and received the Order of Freedom. War on the Ground: Russian strikes hit Kyiv and other areas, while a reported rocket attack killed two in Russia’s Bryansk region; Ukraine also continued deep drone pressure on Russian targets. Diplomacy: Turkey’s FM Hakan Fidan renewed calls for talks via the Istanbul format, but the Kremlin said talks are unlikely soon.

Kyiv Under Ballistic Fire: Russia hit the capital with ballistic missiles overnight July 16, with explosions reported before 1 a.m.; damage and casualties were still being assessed as air alerts spread across Ukraine. Government Shake-Up: President Zelensky dismissed Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov after less than a year, as part of a wider cabinet reset that also saw Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko pushed out; lawmakers and soldiers criticized the move amid fears reforms could stall. EU Refugee Rules: The EU extended temporary protection for Ukrainians until March 2028, but tightened eligibility for new applicants by requiring proof of military-obligation compliance, excluding some military-age men. Drone War, Upgraded by Europe: The EU and Ukraine signed a defense partnership to scale joint drone production by end-2026 and anti-ballistic missiles by 2028, with €1 billion more for drones under the EU loan; Ukraine can also buy certain Chinese drone components using an EU defense-loan exception. Air Defense & Fighter Plans: France pledged Rafale deliveries for 2028-2029 and missile production licenses, while Ukraine expects Patriot capability by late 2026. Human Cost: UN reporting says June was the deadliest month for Ukrainian civilians since April 2022, with 293 killed and 1,990 injured. Black Sea Pressure: Russia struck Odesa and other southern regions, including attacks on civilian ships in the Black Sea. Economy & Reconstruction: The government approved privatization terms for Odesa Port Plant (starting price over UAH 4.3B) and other sanctioned assets, with proceeds earmarked for reconstruction. Germany Helps Rescue Response: Germany delivered hydraulic rescue equipment to Ukraine’s State Emergency Service to speed extraction after strikes.

Black Sea Escalation: Russian strikes hit Odesa, killing three and injuring dozens as port and residential infrastructure came under fire; Ukraine also said drones struck 20 Russian vessels overnight, extending its pressure on maritime logistics. EU Defense Push: EU Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen arrived in Kyiv to announce a bloc-wide “drone deal” and new defense-industry initiatives aimed at producing more, and faster. Drone Output Surge: Zelenskyy said Ukraine now produces 10 million drones a year, targeting 20 million, while Kyiv and the EU agreed on expanded drone production cooperation. Air Defense Upgrade: Ukraine ordered four SAMP/T NG systems, becoming the first combat operator, with France to provide interim batteries during delivery. Coalition of the Willing: Germany may join a Coalition of the Willing exercise after earlier signals it would not, as the group prepares for multinational drills tied to a possible ceasefire. Politics at Home: Reuters reports Zelenskyy’s reshuffle focus includes Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov, with uncertainty over whether parliament will approve him. Security Threats: A Russian dissident, Garry Kasparov, warned Putin could escalate after September by probing NATO’s eastern flank. Maritime Pressure: Ukraine said it struck 11 Russian vessels in the Sea of Azov, further choking the Kerch Strait route. Statehood & Diplomacy: Turkey’s FM Hakan Fidan is set to visit Kyiv for talks on ties, regional security, and efforts toward a lasting peace. War on Civilians: Human rights groups accuse Russia of dropping booby-trapped “harmless” items like tissue boxes and power banks in Kherson to target civilians.

Rafale + air defense deal: Zelensky and Macron adopted a joint roadmap for Ukraine to buy Rafale jets and SAMP/T NG missile defense, with licensed missile production in Ukraine (including SCALP and Aster 30). Government shake-up: Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko resigned as Zelensky reshuffles policy leadership ahead of winter and amid intensified Russian missile pressure. Kyiv seeks a stronger shield: Ukraine says it downed five Russian ballistic missiles as it pushes for more air-defense capacity. Drone war hits Russia’s rear: Moscow’s mayor claims 340 Ukrainian drones were sent toward the capital in 24 hours, with most downed; Ukraine also struck Russian oil infrastructure in the Urals and southern regions. Sea of Azov escalation: Russia accuses Ukraine of terrorism over drone attacks on shipping; Kyiv says it hit multiple vessels, raising pressure on grain export routes. Diplomatic friction: Bulgaria announced it is withdrawing from the “Coalition of the Willing,” arguing for diplomacy over prolonged military aid. Legal transparency push: A Romanian court ordered the government to declassify key information on military aid to Ukraine (subject to appeal). FSB foils AI drone plot: Russia says it intercepted 13 AI-equipped Ukrainian drones aimed at a Rostov airfield.

Bastille Day Diplomacy: France staged its biggest July 14 parade yet with Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky as guest of honour, while European troops and leaders used the spectacle to signal “strategic awakening” and continued support. Rafale Push: Macron confirmed Ukraine will get its first Dassault Rafale fighters by 2028, with an initial batch of 16 and licenses for key weapons production. Air-Defence Race: Zelensky warned Russia’s ballistic reach could extend to 5,000 km, as Ukraine and partners accelerate anti-ballistic planning and coalition efforts. New Coalition Momentum: At the Paris “Coalition of the Willing” summit, leaders backed expanded air-defence supplies and systems, even as Russia hit Kyiv with ballistic missiles overnight. Frontline Tech Leap: Ukraine carried out a world-first combat mission using a drone boat to deploy an armed ground robot behind Russian lines. Drone War on Energy: Ukrainian drones struck Russia’s Salavat refinery in Bashkortostan, while Kyiv also targeted more Russian vessels in the Sea of Azov, tightening the shadow fleet and fuel lifelines. EU Accession Step: The EU officially opened Cluster 6 in Ukraine’s negotiations, moving talks forward as reforms continue. Domestic Politics: Parliament began processing Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko’s resignation amid an uncertain defence-minister situation, with consultations ongoing. Winter Readiness: Kharkiv officials said decentralized energy plans are underway, but winter depends on whether shelling eases.

Anti-Ballistic Push in Paris: Ukraine and nine European partners announced a “purely defensive” anti-ballistic missile coalition, aiming to pool R&D and build an integrated European missile shield as Russian ballistic strikes strain Kyiv’s air defences. Coalition of the Willing: Allies met at Les Invalides to reaffirm support, press for a ceasefire and renewed talks, and accelerate air-and-missile defence cooperation. Kyiv’s Deep-Strike Escalation: Trump backed Patriot production in Ukraine and endorsed deeper Ukrainian strikes into Russia, while Putin warned of “more powerful” retaliation. Sea of Azov Pressure: Ukraine hit eight sanctioned “shadow fleet” tankers to isolate Crimea and worsen fuel shortages. Ukraine’s Government Shake-Up: Prime Minister Yuliia Svyrydenko submitted her resignation; parliament is set to consider it as Zelenskyy reshuffles leadership. Security Incident: Russia’s FSB said it stopped 13 AI-equipped Ukrainian drones targeting the Rostov-Centralny airfield. Diplomatic/Trade Friction: Poland ruled out lifting its unilateral ban on some Ukrainian agricultural imports.

Air-Defense Push in Europe: Zelenskyy arrived in Paris for the Coalition of the Willing talks as Russia’s missile and drone attacks keep squeezing Ukraine’s air shield; leaders are set to focus on more Patriot interceptors, faster SAMP/T deployment, and a cheaper European-Ukrainian anti-ballistic effort called Freya. German Drone Deal: Germany agreed to fund 50,000 Ukrainian-made Shrike FPV attack drones (SkyFall), with AI-assisted target tracking; some deliveries have already started. Deep-Strike and Security: Ukraine’s deep-drone campaign hit Russia’s fuel lifelines: drones struck eight sanctioned “shadow fleet” tankers in the Sea of Azov to isolate Crimea and worsen fuel shortages. FSB Foils AI Drone Plot: Russia’s FSB says it stopped 13 AI-equipped Ukrainian drones aimed at the Rostov-Centralny airfield after a recruited citizen reported the plan. Government Shake-Up: Prime Minister Yuliia Svyrydenko stepped down as Zelenskyy reshuffled wartime leadership. Mobilization Crisis: Conscription “busification” sparked a riot in Lviv after draft officers detained a man, showing growing backlash. War Crimes and Accountability: Zelenskyy confirmed detention of 10 suspects tied to the kidnapping and murder of two brothers in Kyiv region involving the 155th brigade. Humanitarian and Health: MSF condemned Russia’s “deliberate strategy” to destroy Ukraine’s healthcare system, citing a long pattern of attacks. Odesa Port Strike: Russia hit a Togolese-flag cargo ship unloading fertilizers in Odesa, killing three crew and injuring five. EU Sanctions Stalemate: EU foreign ministers in Brussels struggled to finalize the 21st Russia sanctions package over disputes including fish, ships, and oil. Ukraine’s Refugee Rules: EU plans to require a certificate of exemption from mobilization for Ukrainians applying for temporary protection, per media reports.

Deep-Strike & Drones: Russia’s FSB says it stopped a plot targeting the Rostov-Centralny airfield by seizing 13 AI-equipped Ukrainian drones, each carrying explosives. US-Ukraine Policy Shift: Trump backed deeper Ukrainian strikes into Russia and endorsed producing U.S. Patriot interceptors in Ukraine, signaling a major NATO-era push for air defense. NATO Ankara Summit Fallout: NATO leaders head into Ankara focused on higher defense spending and faster defense industry output, while some allies say they’re reaching aid limits. Kyiv Cabinet Shake-Up: Zelenskiy moved to replace Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko after a year and signaled changes across law enforcement leadership. War on Fuel & Crimea Isolation: Ukraine hit Russian “shadow fleet” tankers in the Sea of Azov to disrupt gasoline deliveries to Crimea. Security & Rights: The ECHR set a September hearing on the disappearance of ten Ukrainian children from Crimea care institutions in 2014. Diplomacy & Tensions: Poland-Ukraine relations remain strained over WWII-era disputes and UPA honors, even as both face Russia.

Patriot & deep-strike shift: At the NATO summit in Ankara, President Trump backed faster Ukrainian deep strikes into Russia and approved a U.S. license for Patriot interceptor production in Ukraine, a major policy turn as Kyiv pushes to expand its air-defense reach. Air-defense & missile industry: Ukraine is also in talks with Italy to localize CAMM-ER missile production, while reporting highlights how hard it is to turn Patriot pledges into real battlefield capability. Drone war on fuel routes: Ukrainian unmanned systems hit 90 Russian “shadow fleet” vessels in the Sea of Azov over a week, including tankers and ferries tied to Crimea fuel deliveries, as Russia reports drone interceptions and localized damage. Security & accountability: Zelensky proposed replacing Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko in a government reshuffle tied to a new political strategy, and ordered accountability after a Russian strike hit a weapons depot stored near a residential area outside Kyiv. Local governance: Ukraine’s local budgets grew 17% in H1 2026, with revenue gains driven by displaced people and businesses relocating away from active fighting zones. International memory & diplomacy: Zelensky said exhumations for Volhynia tragedy victims will accelerate, aiming to keep historical disputes from derailing future ties. U.S. politics shock: Ukraine’s key U.S. Ukraine hawk, Sen. Lindsey Graham, died at 71, prompting tributes from Zelensky and NATO leaders.

Patriot shift at NATO: Trump backed Ukraine’s deep strikes into Russia and authorized production of U.S. Patriot interceptor missiles in Ukraine, while Zelensky pushed for faster delivery of air-defense systems and tougher partner follow-through. Air war toll: Russia’s missile and drone barrages killed at least eight and wounded dozens, including strikes on Sumy and Kyiv-region targets, as Ukraine warns it’s still short on interceptors. Crimea isolation campaign: Ukrainian drones hit Russian “shadow fleet” tankers in the Sea of Azov, with reports of shipping disruptions through the Kerch Strait and Don-Azov canal. Diplomacy under pressure: Zelensky announced diplomatic reshuffles aimed at speeding arms commitments, and FM Sybiha accused Moscow of using talks as cover for continued attacks. Accountability at home: Ukraine launched probes after a Vyshneve weapons-depot explosion, identifying officials at Ukroboronprom. Poland tensions, shared threat: Zelensky and Poland marked Volyn remembrance while Poland’s PM Tusk announced a new Warsaw memorial, as both sides frame Russia as the common danger. Frontline snapshot: 215 combat engagements were reported, with the heaviest fighting in the Pokrovsk direction.

Patriot breakthrough at NATO: Trump backed Ukraine’s production of U.S. Patriot interceptors and endorsed deeper strikes into Russia, while Zelensky’s Ankara trip also drew fresh security pledges. Aid limits in Europe: Bulgaria said it has exhausted weapons and ammo stockpiles for Ukraine; the Netherlands also warned it has reached its limit for direct military help. Kyiv under heavy fire: Russia hit the capital with ballistic missiles and 121 drones, injuring at least 11, while air defenses downed most drones but missed the ballistic targets. Crimea isolation campaign: Ukraine’s drones and strikes are choking Crimea’s fuel and power, with Russia reporting blackouts and suspending shipping through the Azov-Don Canal and Kerch Strait after attacks on vessels tied to the “shadow fleet.” War economy pressure: Ukraine struck dozens of Russian tankers and support ships in the Sea of Azov, while Russia’s diesel export ban and fuel shortages ripple into global prices. Frontline manpower strain: Lviv saw conscription riots after “busification” tactics sparked open backlash. Cyber and espionage: Dutch intelligence says Russian-linked hackers compromised internet cameras across NATO routes to track shipments to Ukraine.